The dollar dips further against other major currencies as markets are awaiting Fed chairman Yellen's testimony to the House Financial Services Committee today at 1500 GMT. The prepared speech will be released at 1330 GMT so there would be some food for thoughts in early US session. A number of topics would catch most attention from the markets. A key message that market would look for is for Yellen to reiterate FOMC's stance to continue measured tapering unless economic outlook deviates from Fed's forecast. The Fed is expected to continue to cut back the monthly asset purchase by USD 10b over each FOMC meeting and end the program this year. We'd don't expect Yellen to indicate deviation from this plan but if she doesn't, it could be a huge market mover.
Another key topic is Fed's forward guidance. Unemployment rate, which dropped to 6.6% in January, is now very close to the 6.5% threshold. Fed pledged to maintain rates at the current historical low near zero at least until unemployment rate hits 6.5%. However, it should be noted that recent labor market data has been rather confusing. While the unemployment rate did drop continuously, a rather significant slowdown in hiring pace was seen in December and January. The fall in unemployment rate was largely due to people leaving the market, as see in the decline in participation rate, which hovered around a 35 year low. So, Yellen would be pressed for her views on what the labor market is doing. And more importantly, markets would look for clues on how Fed's forward guidance would evolve. And that might include a change in the 6.5%, or addition of other indicators into the forward guidance. Yellen would likely be ask about her views on recent turmoil in the emerging market as well as regulations. But those question shouldn't be market moving.
Elsewhere, the Australian dollar also extended rebound on a set of positive data. House price index rose more than expected by 3.4% qoq in Q4, versus consensus of 3.0% qoq, and compares to prior quarter's 1.9% qoq. The NAB business confidence improved to 8 in January, up from 6 in the prior month. Though, home loans unexpectedly dropped -1.9% in December. UK BRC sales monitor rose 3.9% yoy in January. Looking ahead, Canadian Finance Minister Flatherty will present budget today. US will also release wholesale inventories.