Dollar and commodity currencies are mildly higher in quiet trading as the week starts. Japan's trade surplus narrowed slightly JPY 0.35T in September, from a downwardly revised JPY 0.36T a month ago. The market had anticipated a sharper drop to JPY 0.21T. The preliminary Markit/Nikkei manufacturing PMI climbed 1.3 points to 51.7 in October. This marks the highest reading in 9 months and beat expectations of 50.6. Markit indicated that manufacturing conditions in Japan "continued to improve in October". As it noted, "production rose at the sharpest rate this year so far helped by a boost in sales, which have increased for the first time since January". Meanwhile, "data suggested that a strong expansion in foreign demand led to the rise in total new orders, as new exports rose at the fastest rate in nine months".
Staying in Asia, PBOC set its USDCNY fixing at the highest level in more than 6 years, although Sheng Yunlai, spokesperson of National Bureau of Statistics last week suggested renminbi has no long term depreciation pressure. As Sheng noted, the short-term depreciation in renminbi has been driven by "international factors" such as strengthening in FOMC rate hike speculations as well as "uncertainties in the global economy". He affirmed that "in the medium and long term, there is no reason for the currency to further depreciate". Although a weaker currency might help lift exports, the cost of which is exacerbation of capital outflow. China's data in the third quarter was mixed. While the trade report came in much worse than expected, the inflation report was encouraging. Meanwhile, the decline in FX reserve reflected both capital outflow and government's currency intervention.
Looking ahead, PMI data is the main focus today as Eurozone, Germany and France will release PMI manufacturing and PMI services. Canada will release wholesales. Meanwhile, a number of central bankers will speak today. The list includes New York Fed president William Dudley, St Louis Fed James Bullard, SNB chairman Thomas Jordan and BoC governor Stephen Poloz. For the week ahead, UK and US GDP will be the main focuses of the week. Meanwhile, Markets will also pay close attention to German Ifo, Australia CPI and Japan CPI. Here are some highlights for the week:
- Monday: Eurozone PMIs; Canada wholesale sales
- Tuesday: German Ifo; US house price index, consumer confidence
- Wednesday: Australia CPI; German Gfk consumer sentiment; UK BBA mortgage approvals; US wholesale inventories, trade balance, new home sales
- Thursday: New Zealand trade balance; Australia import price; Swiss UBS consumption indicator; Eurozone M3; UK GDP; US durable goods, jobless claims, pending home sales
- Friday: Japan CPI, household spending, unemployment rate; Australia PPI; German CPI; Swiss KOF; US GDP