Last week, we published our Nordic Outlook. Noteworthy, is that we revised down our growth forecast for Sweden based on the weakness in housing investments due to the housing market outlook. In Norway , on the other hand, we see renewed growth momentum. The housing market is stabilising and oil investments are picking up again. We do not expect the Riksbank to hike rates in 2018, whereas we see Norges Bank hiking in December.
In respect of our market view, we reiterate our open FI and FX trades that fit very well with the divergent macro and central bank outlook between Sweden and Finland outlined in Nordic Outlook. In our Danske Bank 2018 FI Top trades, we recommended to receive to receive SEK 1y1y vs paying NOK 5y5y both vs EUR. In this strategy, we recommended to receive SEK Mar 19 FRA vs paying NOK MAR 19 FRA. In our FX 2018 Top Trades, we recommended to buy NOK/SEK and to be short EUR/NOK via a 3M bearish seagull.
This week, all eyes will be on the December inflation data from both Sweden, Norway and Denmark. Again, the numbers are expected to confirm the divergence between Sweden and Norway. In Sweden , we expect CPIF at 1.7%, one tenth below the Riksbank expectations and in Norway expect a rebound from 1.0% in November to 1.2% for core-inflation (CPI-ATE).
In Sweden , we also have Riksbank Minutes and they might reveal a discussion on property prices and the importance that Board members attach to recent developments and the possible implication for both growth and inflation. In Norway , we also estimate an increase in industrial production of 0.5% m/m in November, taking the annual rate of growth to 2.3% - its highest level since March 2015.
In Denmark , we expect inflation unchanged from November at 0.0% m/m and 1.3% y/y.
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