Those that view the message of the market on daily basis are likely confused by trading noise. While trading noise contributes to the long-term trends, it does not define them. Human behavior tries to explain trading noise as a meaningful trend. This confuses the majority which, in turn, contributes to their role as bagholders of trend transitions.
ALIGNMENT (Price & Volume)
Bitcoin's composite trend (daily, weekly, monthly) is Down, Up, Up or shallow consolidation. The consolidation deepens if the weekly trend flips to down. Bitcoin's primary (monthly) trend is 6 months old. Monthly BuS and BuST are -0.50 and -0.62, so the primary impulse is not extended in terms of performance or time. The trade phase is Align & Energy.
ENERGY (Diffusion Index)
Bitcoin's leverage profile (WA, DI, DI2) is 13%, 20%, -10%. This combination describes an increasingly quiet market in a relatively neutral accumulation/distribution position. Low WA readings, the quiet before the storm, suggests traders are becoming increasingly disinterested in Bitcoin. Disciplined traders look for collapsing WAs (
Participation (ProIndex)
Bitcoin's ProIndex reveals a troubling bearish divergence with price. Divergences are warnings that the pros are not supporting direction. While divergences can have long lead times, they do suggest vulnerabilities within the primary trend.