Looking at the ratio charts, what can we take away?
The chart on the left is the GLD (NYSE:GLD) daily chart along with the momentum indicator and GLD versus SPY (NYSE:SPY) ratio chart.
Gold GLD close above the pink line or short-term moving average. The trend is bullish. And, I believe it will remain that way.
The middle chart is our Real Motion momentum chart. GLD has cleared the moving averages and the price lines up with the waning momentum.
That tells us that once momentum returns, up GLD goes.
The bottom chart is the ratio between GLD and SPY. SPY began to outperform GLD. That means another gauge is to see if that ratio flips back in favor of gold.
On the right is the oil or US Oil fund Daily chart. Because it did not clear 6.00, we stayed away. Good thing too. The spot price of oil went negative as the May contract expires.
USO (NYSE:USO) crashed by over 11% with an insane amount of volume traded. The average daily volume is around 117 million shares. Yesterday's volume was 727 million shares. Blow off?
We shall see.
The Real Motion data shows the declining momentum. We will be watching for any disparity or when oil begins to stabilize or an increase in momentum before the price does.
The ratio chart versus SPY-again, no surprise there. USO is well underperforming SPY. Should that level out, we will have yet another good indication.
Finally, watch the geopolitics around the world and the US. History, even unprecedented events, does repeat itself. Perhaps not with the same script, but human nature is human nature.
S&P 500 (SPY) Ran right to resistance at under 288 and fell today. Support at 278-280 to be tested.
Russell 2000 (IWM) 114.55 support 118-120 pivotal. 125.80 2018 November low resistance
Dow (DIA) 240 pivotal 234.80 support to hold
Nasdaq (QQQ) Inside day. 212.08-21651 range to break.205 support. 220 big resistance
KRE (Regional Banks) 33.10 pivotal support to hold 35 resistance
SMH (Semiconductors) 3 moving averages converge at 127.25 area
IYT (Transportation) 139.69 last week’s low
IBB (Biotechnology) Highest price since 2015. 123.75 last swing high in 2019
XRT (Retail) 31.00 support to hold 36-38 resistance
Volatility Index (VXX) Never broke the bullish phase. 45.00 next resistance
Junk Bonds (JNK) 100.43 the 50-DMA. 98.20 support to hold
LQD (iShs iBoxx High yield Bonds) 128.70 the 10-DMA support to hold