Inflation data overnight points to further easing of deflationary pressures in China . In combination with concern over bubbling house prices and rising financial risks, it puts monetary policy firmly on hold.
Chinese CPI inflation rose more strongly than expected to 1.9% y/y in September (consensus: 1.6% y/y, previous: 1.3% y/y). The increase was due partly to higher food price inflation but inflation excluding food also increased from 1.4% y/y to 1.6% y/y. It has been trending higher since it hit a bottom in early 2015 at 0.6% y/y. However, it is still far below the government's target of 3%.
Producer price inflation also surprised to the upside and left deflation territory for the first time since 2011 . It has been our view since spring though that PPI deflation would end as higher commodity prices would push up producer prices. PPI also rose m/m by 0.5%, which was the sixth rise in the past seven months.
The increase in PPI is a big driver behind the rebound in industrial profits seen this year . Along with higher volumes, we look for a further increase in PPI inflation in coming months as it is being driven mainly by industrial commodity prices and we expect these to continue to trend higher on the back of the recovery in Chinese construction. Overall deflationary pressures are easing in China at the moment. We expect this to continue in coming quarters. However, as we see the recovery losing some steam in 2017, deflationary pressures could return at some point next year.
We expect monetary policy to be on hold for now but look for renewed easing in 2017 as growth tapers off again. The risk to our view is that China is increasingly using regional measures to control the housing market as there is a very large dispersion across the country. See also ' Research: China letter 2 - is China facing a housing bubble? ' , 14 October 2016.
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