I’ve been observing the dollar index and comparing the more influential individual components to judge the larger outcome. There’s no hard and fast line in the sand that will trigger a definite result but the correlation between them all does suggest potential to provide general break levels that can point to the next larger move. From what I can see at the moment, the risk of triggering a break level today appears limited. There are some complications in a few of the pairs that suggest we’re still in a general neutral zone in which some corrective activity can develop. However, I suspect we’ll have a resolution over the next few days – dependent on the characteristic of the anticipated corrective behaviour.
I actually see this general characteristic in the U.S. Indices also. Coming out of yesterday’s U.S. bank holiday we have a rather wide neutral area to contend with, initially with some minor new extremes. Therefore, the time doesn’t appear to be ripe for a more significant move at this point.
From Friday’s outlook the outcome has generally been appropriate. Both the Continental Europeans weakened against the dollar as expected while GBP/USD basically held in a broad sideways range. This tends to risk some uncertain development over today and tomorrow with potential for several corrective options. At the same time, the aussie has held a broad swinging move higher but without much solid impetus. This, too, tends to match the risk for continued sluggish development.
As for the JPY pairs, these have generated some complicated structures – particularly in USD/JPY from the 121.68 high. In terms of catching the downside targets it has been a particularly rampant and complicated development with a dearth of even mildly deep corrections. Clearly momentum showed the way but the identification of projection targets has been extremely tough. However, from Thursday’s low we have seen a correction that is more consistent with my expectations. That doesn’t rule out complications but does provide a guideline.
On the other hand, EUR/JPY has seen a less robust pullback higher. It probably has a little more to go but I can’t see that we have found a key low just yet.
Steady and mostly short term trading is more likely to generate profits.