We estimate non-farm payrolls increased by 170,000 in December in line with the recent trend and more or less in line with the consensus of 178,000.
The unemployment rate likely rose to 4.7% in December, as the fall to 4.6% was mainly due to a fall in the labour force.
We anticipate average hourly earnings increased 0.2% m/m in December, implying a small increase in the wage growth rate of 2.6% y/y.
We expect employment growth to continue at the current pace in the coming months.
The FOMC has turned more dovish this year as voting rights have shifted, which emphasises the importance of strong labour market performance and continued progress on unemployment and wage growth.
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