The DAX pattern gets complex at this stage. There are plenty of possibilities that may play out eventually. However, the incomplete wave structure on several world indices as well as a couple of opening gaps on the DAX upside suggests that the German index will at least revisit the 13k level.
The June drop into the June low counts as a 3-wave correction from the May high. The subsequent rebound leading prices until today is too sharp for a fourth wave of an impulse to the downside. We could see here the beginning of a third wave to the upside instead. This is depicted by the black scenario. This bullish scenario might as well morph into some more sideways action before it bursts to the upside to another all-time high. The latter scenario is not depicted in our graph.
The alternative scenario is depicted in red. It shows a leading diagonal from the May top to the downside. This fits our introductory remarks in form of divergence versus other indices worldwide. Basically, it means that other indices reach a new high whereas the DAX fails to confirm that action.
All in all, the black scenario has slightly higher odds at this stage. However, we are talking here about something like 51% vs 49% odds. Nevertheless, fetching another spike into 13k looks more promising at this stage.
