Only tier-2 data on the global agenda today. UK retail sales are expected to have strengthened again in April after soft spending in March. UK consumption is supported by strong job growth and robust gains in house prices. Minutes from the latest MPC-meeting are also due for release today.
In the afternoon preliminary euro-area consumer confidence for May is released and is expected to rise further to a seven-year high.
Tonight Fed will be in focus as Yellen, Kocherlakota and George will speak. Minutes from the latest FOMC meeting are also published, but we do not expect any major new information as there were only very few changes to the statement at the meeting last month. We believe market pricing is looking stretched following the recent decline in money market rates and yields in the short end. The market is now pricing the Fed funds rate to be 1.6% at the end of 2016 versus Fed's own median projection of 2.25%.
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