Market movers today
While ISM manufacturing has recovered a lot from the winter lows, we believe it can improve a bit further in the short term before moderating in Q3. Hence, we expect ISM manufacturing to improve to 55.7 in June from 55.4 in May.
We expect the first estimates for the manufacturing PMIs in Spain and Italy to have moved broadly sideways in June. The unemployment rate is expected to have stayed unchanged in both Germany and the euro area in June and May respectively.
In the UK there could be some focus on the release of minutes from the Financial Policy Committee (FPC) on 17 June when some moderate tightening of conditions for mortgage loans was announced to cool the housing market. However, the macro-prudential tightening measures announced were less than expected and it will be interesting to see to the degree of consensus on the FPC. UK manufacturing PMI for June is due for release today.
The conflict between Ukraine and Russia may stir up the market as Ukraine's president has ended cease-fire with rebels in east Ukraine.
June PMIs are released in Norway and Sweden.
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