The main focus will be flash estimates for PMI in the euro area starting with France and Germany this morning. We expect the euro-area composite PMI to have moved broadly sideways in February from the solid 54 level in January. That said, the weaker ZEW economic sentiment released in Germany earlier this week suggests that there is downside risk to our forecast.
In the US the flash estimate for the Markit manufacturing PMI will be released. It is our first indication of the strength of the manufacturing sector on a nationwide scale and it does not really get the attention it deserves in the market. In line with recent regional manufacturing surveys we expect the flash Markit manufacturing PMI to decline further in February. January CPI is also due for release today. We expect core inflation to remain subdued at just 0.1% m/m and headline inflation to increase slightly faster due to higher gasoline prices.
ECB vice-president Vitor Constancio will be speaking at 11:30 CET in Brussels.
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