Market movers today
In the data calendar the main events are the ZEW indicator in Germany, CPI in the UK, and the NAHB housing market index and Empire. In line with our expectations for the PMIs on Thursday we expect ZEW to move broadly sideways.
The ECB chief economist Peter Praet speaks at 12:20 and it will be interesting to see if he has anything to say about ECB's 2016 inflation forecast, even though it is not the main topic of the 'fixing finance' panel discussion.
The Turkish central bank is expected to keep its leading interest rates unchanged in connection with today's interest rate announcement at 13:00 CET. The recent appreciation of TRY has removed the pressure for additional rate hikes but higher inflation makes it difficult to cut interest rates at the current juncture. The Hungarian central bank is expected to continue its policy of 'baby step' interest rate cuts.
The crude oil market will keep an eye on the negotiations about the Iran Nuclear programme between Iran and the so-called P5+1 that will resume in Geneva today.
Despite our downbeat view on inflation in Sweden in 2014, we prefer being neutral ahead of today's inflation data due to some unpredictability as a result of the re-weighting of consumer prices.
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