Market movers today
The main event is the ECB meeting, where inflation will be top of the agenda again after core inflation reached an all-time low of 0.7% in December. We expect Draghi to sound dovish and that the ECB will discuss a deposit rate cut but we do not expect an announcement of further easing measures. Inflation expectations have continued their downward trend since the latest refi rate cut in November and this is another argument for Draghi to sound dovish, see ECB preview: Still pressure from low inflation.
German industrial production is expected to be strong, in line with factory orders released yesterday and the latest business surveys.
In the US initial jobless claims are due for release. Last week the applications for unemployment benefits declined to the lowest level in a month after some year-end holiday distortions. Consensus is for another decline.
No policy move is expected from the Bank of England (BoE) although the cushion to the 7% threshold is declining much faster than forecasted by the BoE.
Furthermore, November retail sales from Norway are released at 10:00 CET.
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