The main data releases are retail sales in the UK and existing home sales in the US. The data released so far suggest a substantial weather impact on the housing market in January, so there is downside risk even to our expectation of a 3.6% m/m drop in existing home sales.
In the coming weeks it will be very interesting to see how FOMC-members interpret the recent US data. Today super hawk Richard Fischer (voter) and James Bullard (dovish, non-voter) will speak. Bullard spoke yesterday and does not appear to believe that recent weak data are enough to adjust the current tapering plan.
Moody's might announce a rating decision on Spain, while Fitch might make an announcement about Ireland.
Tomorrow G20 finance ministers and central bank governors will start their two-day meeting in Sydney, so there will be ample room for comments during the weekend. It will most likely be emerging markets against developed markets with the Fed poised to come under attack from some emerging markets for not taking the impact on the rest of the world into consideration in its monetary policy.
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