Today focus will be on global PMIs. We forecast euro manufacturing PMI to decline slightly after it peaked at 54.0 in January. The development in the order-inventory balance does not point to further improvement and the uncertainty connected with the situation in Ukraine is likely to have affected business sentiment in the euro area in April. On the other hand, new export orders could start to stabilise as US data have been stronger going into Q2 while the Chinese manufacturing PMI appears to have bottomed. In the US the Markit manufacturing PMI is expected to show a slight increase in April.
We expect US new home sales to increase after they dropped to a five-month low in February. Yesterday US existing home sales fell less than expected and it seems that sales are stabilising after falling steadily since July last year. We look for a recovery in US housing in H2 as the effect of higher mortgage rates fades.
Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee publishes the minutes of its April decision. Although inflation was below target for a second month in a row, we believe the BoE is comfortable on hold and the debate within the MPC is when/how to tighten.
Focus will also be on Q1 earnings reports with 40 companies in the S&P 500 index including Apple and Boeing releasing earnings results today.
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