Focus continues to be on the geo-political development in Ukraine, albeit a more conciliatory as president Putin yesterday eased fear of an imminent Russian intervention. Finnish president Niinistoe will meet Putin for talks in Sochi.
In the data calendar focus will be on US data. We expect industrial production to have increased 0.2% m/m in July. Indicators for industrial production together with ISM manufacturing have been suggesting strong manufacturing but weak total working hours in manufacturing in the labour market report suggest subdued industrial production. We expect the University of Michigan consumer confidence to have improved slightly to 83.1 in August from 81.8 in July, mainly on the back of lower fuel prices. Finally, we expect producer prices to have increased only a modest 0.1% m/m in August mainly due to lower energy prices.
In our view Fitch will upgrade Ireland's sovereign credit rating with one notch to A- from BBB+ in connection with its review of Ireland today on the back of the improving outlook for public finances, stronger growth and a more resilient banking sector, see Ireland: virtuous cycles supported by credit rating upgrades , 12 August. This will bring Fitch's rating in line with Standard & Poor's but one notch above Moody's.
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