Market movers today
The Fed will take centre stage today with its statement, new projections and press conference by Fed chairman Janet Yellen. Overall we see the risk skewed towards the slightly hawkish side. It is likely that the Fed will revise down the unemployment forecast which currently stands at 6.2% by end-2014 - only slightly below the current rate of 6.3%. Inflation will also be in focus - not least after yesterday's upside surprise to core inflation in May (see below). The Fed is likely to change to a less dovish tone on inflation where it has for some time stressed downside risks. A key focus will also be the 'dots' of Fed funds rate projections from each member. The median projection at the March meeting was 1.0% at end-2015 and 2.25% at end-2016. However, it only takes very few members to shift the median projection so we could see a change here without too many members altering their forecast.
BoE minutes from the June meeting are released today. After Governor Carney's Mansion House speech on Thursday last week, pricing of the first rate hike has been moved forward to December this year (versus February 2015 before). For today's minutes, expectations are for very explicit discussions regarding the timing of the first rate hike or maybe even a dissenting minority vote.
In Sweden, several economic indicators are due.
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