We expect another small decline in German ZEW expectations for May after it has trended downwards during the first few months of 2014. On the other hand, the current assessment component has improved so far in 2014 and our forecast is that it will continue in May.
In the US we expect retail sales to improve further in April after they rebounded in March following a rough start to the year with bad weather having a major impact on the sales. Our estimate is an increase of 0.2% m/m, as some payback is likely following the very strong reading in March.
ECB's Lautenschlaeger and Weidmann speak today. They are both considered hawkish and it will be very interesting to hear whether they support Draghi's comment given at the ECB press conference last week. So far ECB members have not argued against the comment that there is 'consensus about action', although some said it is too early to speculate about easing in June.
The energy market will carefully monitor the nuclear talks between Iran and the West, which begun in Vienna yesterday and are scheduled to run until Friday. The 20 July deadline for a new deal is approaching, which means concrete details of a more permanent deal may be put on the table this week.
Scandinavia will keep its eyes peeled for the release of April CPI in Sweden this morning.
To Read the Entire Report Please Click on the pdf File Below