In the euro area German and Spanish HICP will give the first set of information about inflation in June. German HICP declined to 0.6% y/y in May where a large part of the decline was a result of lower core inflation driven by a decline in package tours and we expect some rebound in core inflation in June. The increase in the oil price in June is likely to result in a smaller decline in energy price inflation. Nevertheless, we only expect an increase in German inflation to 0.7% y/y as the downtrend in food consumer prices is expected to continue.
We expect a small upward revision to UK GDP in Q1 to 0.9% q/q due to an upward revision to construction output.
In the US we will get more information about consumer sentiment with the release of the final version of the University of Michigan confidence index. In line with consensus we expect an increase to 82.
Release of retail sales and unemployment figures in Sweden and Norway respectively will be the focal point in the Scandi market today.
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