We expect today's euro-area inflation to increase to 0.7% y/y (from 0.5% y/y in May) from an initial forecast of just 0.5% y/y on the back of the higher-than-expected German inflation numbers released on Friday. Core inflation probably also edged higher from 0.7% y/y in May. That said, there could be some downside risk to our forecast as Spanish inflation released on Friday increased less than expected in May.
In the euro area M3 money supply growth and credit growth for May will also be released today. For now we expect both money supply and credit growth to remain subdued at current levels but there are tentative signs that the trend could be turning and ECB's recent easing measures should also gradually support credit growth.
In the US pending home sales and a number of regional manufacturing surveys including Chicago purchasing manager survey are due for release.
The political situation in Iraq remains highly unstable and will probably demand some attention from the global oil market, although the threat to Iraqi oil production is limited.
Norwegian retail sales and credit growth are on top of todays agenda in the Scandi markets.
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