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Danske Daily: Euro Focus

ByDanske Markets
Published 11/29/2013, 05:06 AM
Updated 05/14/2017, 06:45 AM

Market Movers Today
Main focus will be preliminary euro area inflation for November. Following higher-than-expected inflation in Spain and Germany we now look for inflation in November to reach 1.0% from 0.7% in October. German HICP inflation rose from 1.2% in October to 1.6% in November. Part of the upward surprise may be related to technical changes in German HICP but we have too few details so far to know for sure. We continue to look for lower inflation in coming months as the changes in Germany give a big push lower in December of around 0.5 percentage points. Food price inflation is also expected to decline further.

Euro unemployment for October will also attract attention. It is likely to stay flat at 12.2%. Unemployment is still on a rising trend but the increase has slowed down recently, which fits well with the picture of recovery. High unemployment, weak money and credit growth and lower inflation are keeping pressure high on ECB, though, to deliver more easing. We look for a new 3-year LTRO during Q1 next year.

Today is Black Friday in the US - the big shopping day following Thanksgiving. Media reports about sales may get in focus over the weekend. Bad weather may keep even the US consumer at home, though, so it might give us less information this time.

Swedish and Danish Q3 GDP numbers and the Norges Bank's Q4 Regional survey are the main releases in the Scandi region today.

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