Euro area PMIs are expected to improve for a third consecutive month in July. A modest improvement in manufacturing PMI is suggested by last month's order-inventory balance while business expectations in June point to an increase in service PMI. The current level of new orders for composite PMI is equivalent to growth around 0.0% q/q. Hence further improvements would indicate that the euro area is slowly moving out of recession. This is also suggested by euro area consumer confidence, which yesterday increased to the highest level since August 2011. However, Chinese PMI data released overnight showed another decrease although new export orders actually increased (see below). ECB will release its quarterly bank lending survey, which will shed light on how credit conditions are developing in the euro area.
In the US session the consensus for Markit PMI is for a small improvement. Also US new home sales is worth keeping an eye on. The most important Q2 earnings reports are Ford, Volvo and Caterpillar.
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