Market movers today
In the euro area flash inflation will be released. We have revised our forecast for euro inflation up to 0.7% as the German HICP was not as low as we had expected. Although the expected decline puts pressure on the ECB, we do not expect more easing at the meeting on Thursday. Related to lower inflation it is likely Draghi will refer to the latest cut and repeat that it takes time for the full effects of the monetary policy to materialise.
In Germany retail sales are expected to increase after dropping 0.9% last month. There has been a downward trend in German retail sales lately but based on the soft indicators, this is expected to reverse.
In the US Fed's Rosengreen and Williams speak on the economy. Rosengreen (voter, dovish) speaks from a prepared text, whereas Williams (non-voter, dovish) will answer questions from the audience and will meet with reporters after the speech.
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