Market movers today
The oil price continues to be the main focus. Yesterday the price steadied after the recent slide. This appeared to be partly driven by a surprise drop in US stockpiles, as shown by the weekly crude oil stock data released by the US EIA.
German factory orders have shown signs of bottoming lately following weak developments over the summer, which would be in line with higher survey data. The orders data are very volatile, though, and following a strong increase of 2.5% m/m in October we look for a decline in November by 1.8% m/m (consensus -0.8% m/m). This still mirrors an underlying trend of improvement. German unemployment and retail sales data yesterday also point to a recovery in the German economy.
Euro retail sales are expected to show another decent rise of 0.3% m/m in November following 0.4% m/m in October. Consumers benefit from the lower oil price, although the full effect will not be visible until we get consumer data for December and Q1.
Economic surveys from the EU Commission are also released. Economic confidence for the euro area has increased the past two months and is expected to rise further in the December reading from 100.8 to 101.2.
Bank of England will announce rates but no change or press statement are expected.
US initial jobless claims are expected to decline to 290k from 298k last week.
Riksbank minutes and Norwegian industrial production are the Scandi data highlights. Also, our Nordic Outlook is due for publication.
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