Market Movers
In the US we expect another strong labour market report for October this afternoon, despite some signs that growth has started to lose some momentum lately, see US Labour Market Monitor: Underutilisation is diminishing . We expect the non-farm payrolls to stay robust in October at 240,000, a tad above the current consensus. In line with consensus we expect the unemployment rate to stay unchanged at 5.9%. The development in wage growth should also be watched closely, as this is important input for the Fed to judge how fast the labour market is tightening. So far wage growth has stayed subdued.
Germany will release both industrial production and foreign trade data for September. These data will give us important input on the strength of the German economy, which could be balancing close to recession in Q3. We expect industrial production to rebound about 3% m/m (consensus 2.0% m/m), partly because the timing of the summer holiday weighed on production in August. That said, the weaker-than-expected German factory orders released yesterday suggest downside risk. France will also release industrial production for September today.
EU finance ministers will meet at 09:00 CET for the Ecofin meeting. The finance ministers are expected to discuss proposals for a tax on financial transactions. It has proved difficult to reach a consensus and no breakthrough is expected today.
Norwegian manufacturing production probably declined in September on the back of weakness in oil-related industries.
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