Market movers today
Today, we get flash December PMIs for the US and euro area . In particular, we will monitor the European ones, as euro area growth has disappointed this year and in November, the euro area PMI composite fell to a four-year low. We look for another small decline in the PMI manufacturing to 51.3 in line with the still negative order-inventory balance but we still see scope for a stabilisation in PMI services at 53.5.
In the US , retail sales in November are due out at 14:30 CET. We expect private consumption to remain the most important growth driver going forward.
EU27 new car registrations for November are due out at 08:00 CET. Usually this is not a market mover, but production bottlenecks in the car sector due to new emission test standards have led to a sharp contraction in German GDP growth in Q3. After a significant drop in September, registrations have recovered some ground, but it will be interesting to see whether this continued in November. A weak print could well point to lingering growth headwinds from the car sector in Q4.
We expect the Russian central bank to hike the policy rate 25bp to 7.75% today at 12.30 CET. Economists are divided on a hike with some 60% expecting an unchanged policy rate. While we expect a hike, it is a close call and we do not have any clear signals.
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