Market movers today
The main release today is the US PCE data, which we expect to rise to 2.0% from 1.9% (PCE core inflation). We still believe the Fed is on track to deliver two more hikes this year. The consumer spending data will give us more insight into growth at the beginning of Q3.
In Scandi, the Swedish NIER's monthly confidence survey is due out this morning. Norwegian retail sales are also due, see page 2.
The regional inflation prints during the day will give an indication before Friday's euro area flash estimate. We also get European confidence indicators (11:00 CET).
Selected market news
Overnight, Asian equities traded mixed despite the S&P500 closing at an all-time high
EMs had a tough day yesterday. The TRY continued its recent decline despite the Turkish Central bank (TCMB) applying more tools. Although the TCMB doubled its o/n transaction limits, the implicit tightening did not convince the markets. In our view, the only credible step would be a sharp interest rate hike by the TCMB, as even a 300bp rate hike doesn't seem to be enough in the current environment.
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