Market movers today
Much focus will remain on Italy amid the ongoing discussions on forming a viable government. It is still an open question whether new elections will be held and when or whether the Five Star/League or an interim technocratic government will go ahead.
In the euro area, the HICP figures for May are due for release today . On the back of higher-than-expected German (2.2%) and Spanish (2.1%) figures released yesterday, we raise our forecast for todays euro area HICP inflation to 1.8% (1.6% previously) and core inflation to 1.1% (1.0% previously). The magnitude of rebound in core will also have important implications for the timing of the next change of ECB forward guidance (we still expect it to come at the July meeting).
Overnight, we get Chinese Caixin PMI data. We look for a small decline, but reckon there is upside risk to this view after the official manufacturing PMI rose in May.
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