Market movers today
In the euro area all eyes will be on the January HICP figures today. We expect headline inflation to fall temporarily to 1.1% in January due to energy price base effects but bounce back to the 1.4% level shortly after. However, we do not believe headline inflation will pick up significantly from 1.4% before 2019 despite higher expected energy price inflation. Wage growth remains subdued, so underlying inflation pressure is not strong enough to lift headline inflation towards the ECB's 2% target just yet. For core inflation we expect a slight acceleration in January to 1.0%, mainly due to goods price inflation, while service price inflation will likely stay muted. Note that the French and Spanish HICP figures are also released earlier in the morning.
In the US , today's key event is the Fed meeting. We expect no policy changes and also no major changes to the statement, as markets are already beginning to price in the three hikes the Fed is signalling. It will be Janet Yellen's last meeting; for our view on the Jerome Powell Fed wee also Flash Comment US: Fed Chair Powell is 'Yellen in disguise' amid discussions about price level targeting , 24 January.
In Scandinavia, we get Danish unemployment figures for December.
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