Market movers today
The first information about euro area inflation in August is due for release today with the German and Spanish figures. In both countries, inflation should be above 1.5% and not far from the ECB's 2% target. However, the French and Italian figures are closer to 1.0%, and the underlying price pressure remains weak across the euro area, meaning the ECB is likely to stay patient, particularly in light of the stronger euro. See Euro Area Research: Stronger EUR keeping inflation far from the ECB's target , 27 July 2017.
The euro area economic confidence figures will also be in focus. Consumer sentiment has improved on the positive employment situation and on the past year's high real wage growth. Looking ahead, the stronger euro should be a headwind to industrial confidence over time.
In the US, ADP employment is due for release ahead of the employment report on Friday. The latest ADP report showed job growth of 178,000 while the employment report had stronger growth of 209,000. That said, main focus is on the unemployment rate and particularly wage growth as these are more important for the Fed. The second GDP estimate for Q2 is also due for release but we expect no significant revisions in the figure.
Norwegian retail sales data is the highlight in Scandi markets today. Please see the Scandi section on page 2 for further details.