cMarket movers today
The first numbers for Q2 GDP have started to roll in. In the US, the data is set to show strong economic growth of 4-5% (q/q annualised) based on strong contributions from net exports and inventories. However, investments and consumption should also show a decent gain. The inventory number will give an indication of how much companies have built inventories on certain goods before they would be subject to tariffs. Growth should fall back to around 2-2½% as the effect of net exports and inventories falls back.
France is also due to publish Q2 GDP data. It is expected to show a quarterly increase of 0.3%, corresponding to a rise of 1.9% y/y (Q1 growth was 2.2% y/y).
Two data releases for Sweden today, trade balance and retail sales both for June, starting with retail sales. The latest NIER confidence survey showed a clear drop in retailers' confidence, especially regarding durable consumer goods. At the same time, actual sales data has in fact regained some momentum recently. In May, sales rose by 3.1% (y/y) and we estimate that pace remained roughly intact in June (forecast 0.3% m/m and 3.2% y/y). In terms of the trade balance, throughout May, the accumulated trade deficit was SEK12.7bn versus a SEK2.5bn deficit throughout May 2017. This is not to be taken as a sign of economic weakness though but rather the result of pretty strong domestic demand (generating high imports). For June, we estimate a trade balance close to zero,
Russia's central bank (CBR) is due to announce its rate decision today at 12.30 CEST. Together with Bloomberg and Reuters' consensus, we expect the key rate to stay unchanged at 7.25%, as inflation pressure is set to mount later in H2 18. The main intrigue in the statement will be whether the CBR will allow a cut at all in 2018.
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