Market movers today
This morning, European markets are set to digest the result of the meeting between EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and US President Donald Trump, see below.
The key event later today will be the ECB meeting - see ECB review: Cruising to the end of QE , 20 July 2018. We expect little news but some focus on the uncertainty from trade tensions with the US. We do not expect any big market reaction on the back of the meeting.
In the US, we have releases for durable goods orders , initial jobless claims and trade balance .
In Sweden , NIER consumer and business confidence for June is due to be released. While manufacturing confidence has held up pretty nicely, consumer confidence has weakened significantly in recent months. To be honest we don't really fully understand why consumers have become less upbeat. Some claim that it could have something to with tighter amortisation requirements, but we doubt it since only a relatively small proportion of consumers are affected by that. Other than that, we've seen a pretty big jump in retailers' price plans over the latest couple of months, something that coincides with actual goods prices moving higher too as a result of a weaker SEK. Also, June unemployment data will be released today. We estimate s.a unemployment at 6.0% (prev. 6.1%). June has a big positive seasonal factor so n.s.a unemployment will probably rise to 6.9% (prev. 6.5%).
Norwegian LFS labour market data is also due out. We alongside Norges Bank have for some time preferred the NAV release, as the LFS report has exhibited a large degree of volatility. With above-trend growth, we expect both unemployment rate measures to continue falling.
To read the entire report Please click on the pdf File Below: