Market movers today
On the political front, market focus will be on the meetings at the World Economic Forum at Davos, where President Trump will make a special address at 14:00 CET. The address is particularly interesting in the wake of this week's statement from the US administration on the USD and trade protectionism. Furthermore, in the wake of yesterday's ECB meeting, the market will assess the latest ECB stance, when board member Benoît Curé speaks.
In the US, we are due to get the first release of GDP growth in Q4. According to the Atlanta Fed GDPNow indicator, growth was 3.2% q/q annualised while the NY Fed GDP Nowcast indicator suggests growth was 3.9%. If the annualised growth rate exceeds 3.2% q/q AR, it will be the strongest pace since 2014. Consensus is 3.0% right now. In addition, the number for the US preliminary core capex in December is being released, which we expect to show that business investment is still recovering.
In the UK, the first estimate of GDP growth in Q4 is due out. PMIs suggest GDP growth was 0.4-0.5% but the NIESR GDP estimate says it could have been as high as 0.6%. We estimate GDP growth was 0.4% but given the indicators there are upside risks to this forecast. We estimate annual growth in GDP has slowed to 1.4% y/y, the slowest since Q2 12.
In Sweden , December prints on retail sales, household lending and trade balance are due.
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