Market movers today
There are a number of interesting data releases today. Furthermore, financial markets will also look out for new trade measures from the US versus China and possible counteraction by the Chinese authorities.
In the US , Markit PMIs for March are due for release. We expect the manufacturing PMI to stabilise at a relatively high level of around 55 after having fallen back a bit last month. Optimism remains high as consumer confidence rose further in February, which in our view, suggests that the services PMI could rise further from 55.9 to 56.4.
In the euro area, the PMI figures for March will be released today. For two consecutive months, we have seen manufacturing PMI decline. After peaking at 60.6 in December 2017, it declined to 58.6 in February. We expect to see a further decline to 57.6 in March from 58.6 in February given the negative order-inventory indicator and impact of the 2017 euro appreciation. The Services PMI is also expected to decline in March to 55.7 from 56.2 in February.
We expect the German Ifo expectations to have fallen further in March to 105.0 from 105.4 in February, thereby increasing the downward trend seen since November last year.
In the UK, eyes will be on the Bank of England (BOE) meeting today, although we do not expect any major policy shifts and on the EU summit, where we are looking for further details on the tentative deal that seemed to have been reached between UK and EU earlier this week.
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