Market movers today
In the US , PCE figures for November are due. CPI numbers (usually a good predictor of PCE) for November were weaker than expected. Based on CPI, we estimate PCE core increased 0.1% m/m (1.5% y/y versus 1.4% in October, although October was very close to 1.5% y/y) and PCE headline increased 0.3% m/m (1.8% y/y versus 1.6% y/y in October). The difference between the monthly increase in core and headline PCE is driven by increasing energy prices. However, with yesterday's slighter weaker than expected Q3 core PCE released with the Q3 GDP, there's downside risk to our call. Also, in the US, we are due to get core capex orders for November. Capex orders gained strong momentum in the autumn and regional capex plans suggest this trend will continue. The average of the regional capex plans is at its highest level since February 2007, indicating continued tailwinds for core capex orders in coming months.
In the UK , the index of services for October is released today. This indicator is important for the assessment of growth at the beginning of Q4. According to PMI services, service sector growth has been muted in Q4.
The Danish fiscal budget for 2018 should be approved in the third budget hearing after the Liberal Alliance stated that it will support the budget law. We also get the revised national accounts data for Q3 in Denmark, when we will find out whether growth is still estimated to have been as bad as suggested previously.
In Sweden , November retail sales are due to be released. We expect to see modest increases of 0.5% m/m and 1.2% y/y. However, we note that the modest y/y figure reflects mainly a very strong sales performance a year ago.
NAV is due to publish December jobless numbers today in Norway . All leading indicators are pointing to continued above-trend growth and rising employment and vacancies seem to be holding up well. Therefore, we expect an unchanged jobless rate of 2.3%, which translates into a moderate decrease in seasonally adjusted terms. We expect gross unemployment - our preferred jobless measure - to fall by 1,000 people m/m.
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