The main event today is the FOMC minutes from the January meeting. The statement has not changed significantly but the minutes may give an overview of the different opinions within the Fed. In particular, we are interested if the minutes will indicate whether the tax reform will cause more rate hikes than the three the Fed signalled in December. We still expect an increase in the interest rate at the next Fed meeting in March.
Furthermore, the US Markit PMI service and manufacturing indices for February are due for release. We estimate Markit PMI manufacturing rose further to 56.5 and the service index to rise in February, up to 54.
In the euro area, February's PMI figures are due for release. Manufacturing PMI saw a large fall to 59.6 in January and the leading order-inventory indicator has been declining since October 2017, pointing towards lower manufacturing output in the near future, while the extremely high optimism for the manufacturing sector is likely to be exhausted and head to lower levels. We expect manufacturing PMI to be 59. 3 in February and believe that service PMI is also set for a similar decline to 57.6.
In the UK, focus is on the labour market report for December. We estimate that the unemployment rate (3M average) is unchanged at 4.3%. The report is important, as the market is trying to assess whether the Bank of England will hike as early as May.
In Norway, we will get LFS jobless data for December, and we expect a modest decline on the back of the modest decline in the NAV's numbers.
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