Market movers today
Following the upward surprise in US CPI inflation yesterday, focus on the macro front today turns to US retail sales for August, which we estimate increased by 0.3%. Preliminary consumer confidence for September from the University of Michigan is also released. Like business confidence, consumer confidence is still very high, but Hurricane Harvey and an unstable political environment within the US may have weighed on it and we estimate a slight fall to 95.0. Also, keep an eye on the five- to 10-year inflation expectations in the survey. They trended lower during 2015 and 2016 but have moved sideways at around 2.5% for a year now.
The US Empire index (business confidence) is likely to retreat a bit in September after hitting the highest level in three years in August. The indicator is quite volatile and the August level was likely to be 'too strong' relative to the underlying development. US industrial production for August is also due and estimated to increase 0.1% m/m.
On the central bank front, we have speeches today by ECB members Nouy (8:00 CEST), Visco (09:00 CEST) and Lautenschläger (10:15 CEST).
With the German parliamentary election less than 10 days away, we have published another German election monitor No. 2 , 14 September, looking at some of the most pressing issues that politicians will have to deal with in the future.
To read the entire report Please click on the pdf File Below: