Most of this week's key data is being released today. US retail sales for April are expected to show a decent rise of 0.4% m/m for the core measure (control group). US private consumption was soft at the beginning of the year but is expected to recover in Q2. However, the recent rise in oil prices could postpone a rebound in private consumption. The US is also due to release the Empire index; the first regional survey for April.
German ZEW expectations survey was very weak in April, which may be partly related to the uncertainty over a potential US-China trade war. Consensus looks for a stabilisation in the index in May at -8.2.
In the UK. It is time for the labour market report for March. Month-on-month wage growth has been remarkably stable in recent months and we estimate another increase of 0.2% m/m, taking the annual growth in average hourly earnings ex bonuses (3M average) to 2.9% y/y from 2.8%. The unemployment rate (3M average) is expected to remain at 4.2% but risk is skewed towards a fall to 4.1%.
To read the entire report Please click on the pdf File Below: