Market movers today
Financial markets will continue to focus on developments in Turkey , which over the past week have had significant ramifications for other emerging market and G10 currencies.
A first estimate of German Q2 GDP data is out today, which we and consensus expect to show only a modest growth rebound to 0.4% q/q. Although the preliminary print will not bring any component breakdown, we will still get some insights into the growth drivers in Q2 and will look out for evidence of headwinds from the external side. The second estimate for euro area Q2 GDP figures is also due to be released, with a risk towards a slight upward revision to 0.4% q/q.
It will be interesting to see whether German ZEW expectations show some signs of stabilisation in August, in line with other sentiment indicators such as Ifo and PMI lately.
The final July HICP figures for Germany, France and Spain are also on the agenda and will give insights into any possible revisions to Fridays final euro area print.
The UK labour market report for June is also due out. We estimate the unemployment rate (3M average) fell from 4.2% to 4.1%, while average weekly earnings have risen in quite a stable manner at 0.2% m/m in recent months and we believe the trend continued in June. This would leave the annual growth rate (3M average) unchanged at 2.7% y/y.
In Scandinavia, Danish Q2 GDP data is also due (see next page).
To read the entire report Please click on the pdf File Below: