Danske Daily - 12 January 2018

Published 01/12/2018, 02:17 AM

Swedish inflation will be in focus this morning. We predict Swedish inflation at 1.9% on CPIF (see more in the Scandi section).

In the afternoon, attention will switch to inflation as well as retail sales in the US. On inflation, we look for a rise in core CPI of 0.2% m/m in December in line with consensus. It leaves the annual core inflation unchanged at 1.7% y/y. Note the Fed's preferred measure for inflation is the PCE deflator, which is due 29 January. Core PCE inflation was 1.5% y/y in November and thus at a slightly lower level than core CPI inflation (due to different weights).

US retail sales have been on a robust path recently and the control group that feeds into private consumption in GDP rose a brisk 0.8% m/m in December. It is expected to grow 0.4% m/m in December.

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