ECB will announce the weekly repayment of the 3Y LTRO, which is likely to attract attention as excess liquidity continues to fall towards the EUR200bn mark. The trend in the weekly LTRO repayment has been decreasing recently and last week's repayment of EUR1.52bn was on the low side of this trend.
We expect total payrolls to gain 175,000 in July and private job growth to reach 185,000. The service sector will remain the main contributor to job growth but the latest data from the manufacturing sector suggest that job growth in this part of the economy likely turned positive in July as well. We expect the government to continue to shed jobs at a 10,000 persons per month pace. We look for a one notch decline in the unemployment rate from 7.6% to 7.5%. This should support expectations of a September start to Fed's QE tapering.
Fed's Bullard speaks on the US economy. At the FOMC meeting on Wednesday Bullard voted for the July statement after dissenting in June, whenhe wanted the Fed to show more commitment to its 2% inflation target.
In Scandinavia unemployment data for Norway and currency reserve data in Denmark are on the agenda.
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