US mortgage applications is the only key data release today.
Markets are in wait-and-see mode ahead of the all-important ECB meeting tomorrow with the rate decision at 13:45 CET and the press conference starting at 14:30 CET. We expect the ECB to cut the deposit rate by 10bp to -0.4%, to introduce a two-tier deposit rate system aimed at reducing the cost to the banking sector and to signal that the deposit rate can go even lower. We also look for the ECB to front-load the QE purchases by EUR20bn p/m in spring to signal willingness to support inflation.
Bank of Canada will announce its rate decision at 16.00 CET. There is a strong consensus that the policy rate will be kept unchanged at 0.5%.
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