This morning market focus will be on the outcome of yesterday's French presidential election in which independent Macron defeated the Front National's Le Pen with 66.1% against 33.9%. This was a greater margin of victory than opinion polls had projected. For more details see Research France: Clouds lift over Europe after Macron wins presidency , 8 May.
In terms of data releases focus will be on euro area Sentix investor confidence which we expect to climb further as markets seemed relieved by the outcome of the first round of the French election.
The German factory orders are also released today. The figure reported a 3.4% monthly increase in February, following the 6.8% fall in January. We estimate a monthly decline of 2.3% for March but note that the volatility in the figure since October 2016 has been higher than usual, meaning a 2.3% decrease is of less significance than previously
The Fed's Bullard (non-voter, dove) and Mester (non-voter, hawkish) are both scheduled to speak in the afternoon. Here, we hope to get some more colour on the different views within the committee after the relatively dull FOMC statement released on Wednesday last week, see FOMC review , 3 May.
During the rest of the week focus will be on US CPI inflation after the sharp fall in March, German GDP growth for Q1 and the BoE which we expect to keep rates unchanged.
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