Market Movers
Focus is on the US job report. We expect a rebound in job growth in April with non-farm payrolls up 215,000, which is slightly below consensus. This would be a significantly higher pace of job creation than in March, when job growth was a modest 126,000. We estimate that the unemployment rate held steady at 5.5% and continue to expect the Fed's long-term neutral rate of 5.0-5.2% to be reached in H2 this year. Markets are likely to pay close attention to the average hourly earnings component in the employment report. The Employment Cost Index for Q1 released last week showed that wage inflation accelerated and we would expect to see a similar pick-up in average hourly earnings soon, as the labour market continues to tighten.
The market will likely also digest the result of the UK general election - see below.
German industrial production should be unchanged in March after it increased 0.2% m/m in February. Compared to factory orders it has been stronger during Q1 and it should have supported GDP growth.
In Scandi markets the focus will be on the release of industrial production figures in Denmark and Norway.
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