Developments in China and the oil market are set to continue to be a key focus. We published a piece on the Chinese currency outlook yesterday.
In Germany, industrial production and trade balance figures for November are due for release. Industrial production should continue to reflect the pattern in factory orders with a lag of one month and hence show an increase for November but only of around 0.7% m/m.
The main release to watch today is the US non-farm payroll. We expect the job report for December to show that employment has continued to rise this month and that the labour market continues to tighten. Our main focus is on the growth in average hourly earnings, as higher wage growth is necessary for higher underlying inflation pressure in the US. The Phillips curve, which describes the relationship between unemployment and wage growth, shows that wage growth has been ticking up this year and we expect this to continue next year too.
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