Market movers today
The German trade balance for June is expected to show an increase in exports and imports after both figures declined in May. Imports were weak during the first two months of Q2, likely reflecting some softness in domestic demand in Germany. On the other hand, exports have strengthened a bit after the slowing of the US and China in early 2014 resulted in weak exports in end-Q1. These trends mean net exports could give a positive contribution to German GDP growth in Q2.
French industrial production is set to have increased in June but it could end up being weaker than expected. Industrial production points to a decline in GDP growth but private consumption is likely to have increased and we expect slightly higher activity in Q2.
In the US, unit labour cost in the second quarter is due for release and we estimate a modest increase of 1.6% which is a bit higher than consensus at 1.1%.
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