Market movers today
This morning German factory orders for February are due for release and we expect an increase of 3.0% m/m after a quite weak print in January. Our forecast is above consensus of 1.5% m/m, but it will be more in line with improvement in business surveys and the latest trend higher in industrial production.
Euro area retail sales on the other hand are set to decline slightly in February after a very strong figure in January. However, growth in private consumption is still likely to be strong in Q1 as the decline in the Crude Oil price has boosted consumer purchasing power and as consumer confidence has reached its highest level since 2007.
The minutes of the 17-18 March FOMC meeting are due for release tonight. The FOMC removed 'patient' from its statement, which means the door for a June rate hike is open, but at the same time, it lowered the projection for the fed funds rate path by around 50bp this year and the following two. It will be interesting to see the discussions leading up to this significant revision and the arguments behind the move.
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