Market movers today
Final euro area GDP figures are due today, providing insights into the composition of Q1 growth, which accelerated to 0.5% q/q. It will be particularly interesting to see whether the expected pickup in investments and slowing of private consumption growth is confirmed by the data. In 2017, we still expect solid GDP growth of 1.7% in the euro area (see also The Big Picture: Less tailwind for the global economy , 1 June). Today also brings German factory orders for April. Following two months of increases, we expect a decline in factory orders of about 0.7% for April.
In China, FX reserve data is released. We expect FX reserves in May to increase due to valuation as the USD weakened significantly and thus increased the USD value of euro reserves for example and as outflows have stopped following the tightening measures of the government. The Polish central bank holds its monetary policy meeting today, but we expect the bank to keep its policy rate unchanged at 1.5%.
In the Scandi countries, the focus today is one the industrial production data in Denmark and not least Sweden. Given the weaker-than-expected exports and production numbers in the latest Swedish Q1 GDP data, it will be interesting to see how Q2 starts out. In Denmark, bankruptcies and repossessions for May are also released, see next page.
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