Market Movers
Today all eyes will be on the US labour market report for July. We expect non-farm payrolls to increase by 210,000. This is slightly below the past three-month job growth of just above 220,000 but in our view still at a pace that will move the core of the FOMC in favour of a rate hike at the next Fed meeting in September. We expect the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 5.3%. Focus will also be on average hourly earnings, which were flat on the month in June resulting in a decline in annual wage growth to only 2.0% compared to 2.3% in May. We expect average hourly earnings to increase by 0.2% m/m in July as the labour market continues to tighten.
In the euro area focus will be on industrial production in Germany and France. Yesterday's strong German factory orders suggest upside risk to the German figure. In line with the increase in orders, we expect foreign demand to support industrial production in June. This should follow as exports are currently supported by the weaker effective EUR and stronger growth in the US.
In Norway we expect a slight rebound in industrial production up to 1.3% m/m in June and overall credit growth to increase to 6.0% y/y.
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